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2008 Schedule & Non-Member Commentary for NFL Week 3

 
Review our NFL Picks and Plays Commentary below and check out the schedule below.  *NOTE:  Complete commentary and analysis is in our FREE member section.  The red dashes (-----) below represent key commentary and NFL picks analysis you can read for free by joining today!

THE STINK FACTOR!

As our longtime members know, it is often difficult to come storming out of the gates early on in any season because the new NFL data is so fresh.  We did very well in week 1 and dipped off in week 2.  Here is why, and here are adjustments we're making to our data model:  Without getting too technical as to all the details of our data model and forecasting engine, we are now adding something that we like to call "The Stink Factor".  Technical aspects behind this are complex, so let's make this easy.  Using early data from this season's games, we have some real stinkaroos on our hands.  For example, as we discussed previously, the Rams stink, the Browns stink (but have potential) and honestly, a whole lot of teams stink this year.  Previously, when a team's numbers and trends were fed into our model, we did not account for this stink factor.  In other words, if the Rams lost by 2 TD's or 5 TD's, it really wouldn't make a difference to our forecasting engine.  There were thresholds that were set accordingly, but the fact of the matter was that they lost by two touchdowns as far as we were concerned. 

But this year, we're seeing early trends of blowouts.  Using the Rams as our example again, these guys couldn't find the end zone if they wore GPS devices on their helmets, while their opponents have, for the most part, been asked to pay rent because they're living in the end zone!  In other words, they're getting blown out and may continue to do so.  The Browns; same thing.  Sure we won with Cleveland last week BUT our weather adjustments were the factor.  If the wind hadn't been blowing at tornado-like speeds last week, it is more than likely that Cleveland would have lost by double digits.  A field goal kick had a better chance of ending up on the sidelines than through the uprights as the wind wreaked havoc on the entire game and its outcome.  So we won, big deal!  The Browns still stink.  Hence THE STINK FACTOR.  We are making adjustments to account for low scoring teams who will more than likely get blown out by 2TDs+ when facing an offensively powerful team. 

As we discussed in last week's commentary, Joey G liked the Rams at home getting more than a TD.  Typically, as history has it, the home dogs are consistently good plays, and when Joey can take a dog at home with more than a TD, he does it.  Had we employed the new Stink Factor into our model, we would have likely taken the Giants and happily handed over the 8 points. However, this was not yet in place and per our data model, Joey went with St. Louis.  The result, Joey's head was handed to him on a platter as the Giants smashed the Rams by 4TDs.  The converse of this can be seen in the Dallas/Philly game where we have two offensive powerhouse teams.  Without getting into who won and why, we are making ongoing adjustments to factor in teams like these two who may very well put 4+ TDs on the board in most of their games - so we're hoping to see better totals plays as the year goes on.  Our ten year history has resulted in great picks later in the season and our postseason plays are traditionally solid.  We are making these changes in an attempt to dominate early in the season as well as late in the year.  We're looking forward to better results in week 3!

So Much for #4

Well it's week 3 and apparently Vegas has no respect for Brett Favre and the Jets.  Or is it Coach Mangini that lost the respect of Vegas?  9 points (as of 9/19 2:30pm) is an awful lot to give up to any Brett Favre team and Joey apparently feels the same.  While the Jets D held up well against the Pats, and looked good vs. Miami in Week 1, apparently Vegas feels that San Diego's offensive output might resemble last week.  What makes me laugh is this:  If the Jets had any idea of how to call plays in the NFL, they just might be 2-0 and the spread here would be more like 3 to 5 points.  Mangini had a brain lapse last week and apparently thought that Vinny Testaverde was still under center as he called 3 consecutive dismal running plays, keeping his team out of the end zone when they had first and goal with about the length of a nose hair needed to punch one in.  I'd like to see the Jets succeed this year for the sake of trooper Favre, although I'm not actually a Jets fan.  Originally from NY yes, but a Jets fan?  Not really.  I do empathize, however, with the Jets faithful because the 3 consecutive failed running plays nearly made me regurgitate my morning waffles, so I can just imagine how ticked off Jets fans must have been.  If anything, the Jets should have called three pass plays and Favre would have found a way to make at least one of them work.  Instead, not only do the Jets call three runs, but they call the same damn play each time.  Sheesh!  How disappointing!  Honestly, I don't know if it was Mangini's ultimate decision, or the booth's call, or a coordinator;  but whoever made the calls should be in solitary confinement for week 3 or at the very least, grounded and sent to his bedroom for a week!  OK enough ranting.  It's just that watching coaches lose games for their team on horrid play calling eerily reminds me of "Grady Little leaving Pedro in".  If you don't understand that one then it's not worth explaining.  Pats fans require no explanation.  OK, now I'm really done!  Joey likes -------- as our #5 sides play on MNF. 

 

Brett Who?

We said it before, and we'll say it again.  The Pack will be just fine with Aaron Rodgers under center and Joey's confidence in him is obvious in -----.  What's impressive to us is the fact that Joey has ----------------- when they're opposition is perhaps the most potent offense in the NFL this year.  While our personal opinion is that the top-3 teams to beat in the NFC are Dallas, Philly and the Giants (in no particular order), Green Bay may very well sit in the #4 spot as far as we're concerned.  Rodgers had four years to learn the tricks of the trade and who better to learn from than perhaps the most durable QB in the history of the game.  Sunday may just be the biggest test of the season for Green Bay's defense however, as Tony Romo continues to come into his own and establish himself as a premier passer in the league.  This is one of those funny games to pick because we're either going to win this game handily or get our butts kicked. While that may not be the most profound statement you've ever heard - and it may even be a little Yogi Berra-like - this is definitely a statement game for both teams, and one way or another, one of these two will stand out.  The Pack will be saying "don't overlook us, we're here to stay" or the Boys will boast "not quite yet young fella, we're the team to beat in '08".  Personally, I think this game will not be as close as the spread indicates.  Joey says it will be, as 3 points is ----------------- and make their statement, but tread with caution here because -----------------.  The Packer fans are some of the most football knowledgeable in the country, and things are going to get loud in Green Bay.  Rodgers' confidence is high, and with the support of the home crowd and perhaps and early score or two, a Packer surprise of the Cowboys may be just what the doctor ordered insofar as finally putting the Green Bay / Favre love affair behind them.  Regardless of any personal opinions or even common logic here, our calculated power rankings, -----------------  Joey to take the ----------------- .  Good luck in this one.  It should be fun!

Zzzzzzzzzzz......

If you're forced to watch this one because of your home region in the US, then have lots of coffee on hand.  Oh.... and a pair of nose plugs. You'll need them for these two stinkaroos.  When we ran our forecasts this week, we were worried that Joey would crash when he got to this one.  Thankfully, he blew right by it with a pair of "no plays" for the week.

 


 

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Date Time (EST) Away Home
SUN SEP 21 1:00 PM
Arizona

Washington
SUN SEP 21 1:00 PM
Carolina

Minnesota
SUN SEP 21 1:00 PM
Cincinnati

NY Giants
SUN SEP 21 1:00 PM
Houston

Tennessee
SUN SEP 21 1:00 PM
Kansas City

Atlanta
SUN SEP 21 1:00 PM
Miami

New England
SUN SEP 21 1:00 PM
Oakland

Buffalo
SUN SEP 21 1:00 PM
Tampa Bay

Chicago
SUN SEP 21 4:05 PM
Detroit

San Francisco
SUN SEP 21 4:05 PM
New Orleans

Denver
SUN SEP 21 4:05 PM
St. Louis

Seattle
SUN SEP 21 4:15 PM
Cleveland

Baltimore
SUN SEP 21 4:15 PM
Jacksonville

Indianapolis
SUN SEP 21 4:15 PM
Pittsburgh

Philadelphia
SUN SEP 21 8:15 PM
Dallas

Green Bay
MON SEP 22 8:30 PM
NY Jets

San Diego