JoeyGeneva's Pro Football Picks, Handicapping, Predictions & Commentary.



The weekly NFL picks game card below is only a sample.
The games used here are only examples and their corresponding picks and spreads are not indicative of an actual NFL week. We STRONGLY recommend that you review "How Joey G Works" below so you understand how we play, when we play and how to play.

Sample Weekly NFL Game Card - Joey Geneva's Free Weekly NFL Picks

The key columns to watch are the Play/Rank columns. The lower the rank, the better the play.  As you can see in the sample NFL card above, the Falcons would be a top sides play as Joey G sees the 8 point spread coverable and the best play of the sample NFL week above.  As for over/under (totals), the Cards vs. Chargers would be the top play at UNDER 47.5.  Remember that the sample above is only an example and does not represent any real NFL games this season.

Important note:  Lines change and so do our plays, so check back often.  When it is is early in the week and perhaps too soon to make the final predictions on many games, it is critical that you sign in and check for updates in lines and/or plays.  Joey G newcomers should know that we typically do not recommend plays ranked less than 5.  Some members consistently play our top 3 plays of the week, while others focus only on the top-ranked plays each week (the pick of the week).  The choice is yours, but the higher the rank number, the worse the forecast from our Geneva Forecasting System.

No Plays:  When you see a "No Play" for any game, this means .... NO PLAY!  Joey G recommends avoiding this pick entirely because the differential between our final score, and what Vegas sees as the final score and spread are within very small fractions of one another, making the pick too close to call.

How we rank:  Our ranks are just the opposite of our no plays. The greater the differential between our determination of what the spread should be and Vegas' call of the game, the better the rank. We run a complete series of stats and data through our forecasting engine every week. Let's use the picks above. If, for example, our system says the underdog Dolphins will beat the Broncos by 2 points, and the spread is Denver -2, the differential between our calculation and Vegas is 4 points - which is huge in the world of NFL forecasting. As a result, if this 4 point is our largest degree of difference in all of our plays, then this would put Miami in the #1 position. Again using the chart above, we may have the Chiefs forecasted as a 1.5 point favorite, so while Vegas gives us a 3.5 point margin, our system forecasts a two point differential in KC's favor making them the a top play as well that would be broken down to decimal places against the Giants game to determine the better play. The numbers we used in this example and the point differentials are only examples. Our top picks are typically when the point spread is off by 2 to 4 points, Our other picks are when the point spread is off by 1 to 2 points, in descending order. When the spread is off by a point or less, we generally will mark that as a "NO PLAY". We may downgrade a pick from a Top Play if there is a question as to whether a key player who is injured will perform.

OFF games:  OFF simply means "off the board".  We are waiting on lines.  Vegas is waiting on the Pats play simply because the Tom Brady situation is up in the air, which can dramatically tilt the scales in either direction depending on his health.  As of 11:00am EST on September 3rd, this game is off the board.  We will post the line when we receive it, and it could possibly change our plays and ranks.

WAIT before you play:  Weather, injuries and many other parameters factor into our final plays.  We always recommend waiting as long as you can to make your plays for the week.  For example:  Let's imagine the sample picks above were from the 1970's and 80's.  Joey G likes the Giants (above) getting 6 points from the Raiders.  It's a negligible play because it is currently ranked #6.  However, if Ken Stabler breaks his arm on Saturday, you can bet the line will change, the pick will change, and most likely our rank will change, because after all, who's gonna throw to Dave Casper and Freddie Biletnikoff?!?!?  So it's best to take a sideline approach until as late as possible because anything can change!

Don't blame 'us', blame Joey!!! 
Finally our disclaimer.  We may personally hate some of the plays we make, while others we love.  Why?  Because we don't pick em.  Joey does.  "Joey" Geneva is the fictional character name given to the NFL Forecasting Software derived from the Geneva Forecasting System.  We post what we're told.  Sometimes Joey is right, and other times he's not.  But more times than not, Joey G has picked em better than we ever could over the years, so what Joey says is what we post!  Always remember the rankings. If you insist on playing a game that is low-ranked (which means you're better off not playing the game), then play at your own risk!